The First Victims of Health Care Reform

As Democrats on the campaign trail do their best to drum up support for health care reform by touting the benefits that take effect this year, it's easy to forget that the full thrust of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act doesn't kick in until 2014. But by then, a few major players in the health care industry might have already experienced a real downside of the massive overhaul, so much so that they may no longer exist. Insurance agents and brokers and small insurance companies are among those who may have to scramble to stay afloat over the next few years. This is partly by design and partly an unintended consequence of a new law that is so sweeping, it will affect nearly every corner of an industry that accounts for one-sixth of the U.S. economy. Under the Affordable Care Act, beginning in January, plans sold to individuals and small groups must spend 80% of premiums on actual medical care (as opposed to administrative costs); the figure is 85% for large group plans. Plans that spend less will be required to send rebates to customers. The NAIC counted agent and broker commissions, which can make up 5% to 20% of premiums, in the administrative category. Most experts, therefore, predict these commissions will be on the chopping block as insurers scale back administrative expenses to comply with the new rules.